IN THIS PAPER
Selling a private business is best thought of as an ongoing planning process that begins well before the deal is consummated and ends well afterward. But at every point along this continuum, the owner and his professional team are grappling with and resolving both financial and personal issues. Bernstein’s proprietary modeling capabilities can quantify the likelihood that a sale will meet an owner’s critical financial objectives and help evaluate the trade-offs across different deal terms.
You Can Get Satisfaction
Sir Michael Jagger, better known as Mick, led The Rolling Stones in proclaiming that “You can’t always get what you want…but you just might find you get what you need.” This trade-off applies to all things in life, including investments, and it has special validity when selling a private business. Although an owner’s focus may be on getting his “magic number” for the business up front, he may find that other alternatives offer acceptable, or even superior, trade-offs.
We begin with the premise that business sales are typically complicated, and laden with emotional issues. The owner is selling his means of livelihood, and more—the configuration of his financial portfolio: He’ll have to make the transition from relying on business earnings to living off the pool of liquid investments generated by the sale. The good news is that sellers are not in the process alone, but generally represented by teams of advisors, usually quarterbacked by an investment banker and including a portfolio-management professional such as Bernstein (display below). The role of the investment manager is not to pass judgment on one or another termsheet, but to place each in the context of the seller’s overall financial objectives. This can be done at any point in the deal—but the sooner the better.
A Thicket of Questions
Display 2 parses some of the interconnected financial and emotional issues that arise when selling a business. For example, whether the owner receives “enough” for his business depends on how much it generates in earnings and how much the market is willing to pay for those earnings. But directly connected are issues like whether now is a good time to sell, whether the owner wants to retain an interest in the business for a while longer—often a negotiable point—and how the sale will impact the owner’s family and employees. All of these issues affect owners’ personal lives as deeply as their financial wherewithal—and on both sides of that equation professional planning can identify opportunities and help solve problems. Further, each of these questions leads to additional questions.
Arriving at answers is made none the easier by the blizzard of alternatives often available, and frequently buyers and sellers find themselves in disagreement about deal terms, legalities, and tax-related matters. The job of the professional teams—the seller’s and the buyer’s—is to satisfy their respective clients, resolve as many issues as possible before the consummation of the deal, and monitor the transaction as it moves forward. And there are never one-size-fits-all answers. One seller may justifiably be anxious to consummate the deal before taxes go up in 2011; another may be willing to pay the higher levy if he expects hisearnings to increase significantly in the near future, raising the value of the offers he’ll receive. The question is whether the risk of waiting will pay off. We’ll have more to say about this later.
Display 2
Typical Business-Owner Questions
Emotional
- Do I want to stay involved in the business?
- Do I have a plan for my life after the sale?
- What effect will the sale have on my family and employees?
- Do I have the risk tolerance to accept contingent deal terms?
Financial
- How much is my business worth?
- What’s the best deal structure for me?
- Will I get enough to meet my needs?
- Is all-cash-now better than staged/contingent payments?
Professional planning is critical.
What about the environment? Is this a good time to sell? Evidence of an economic recovery is mounting, but financing is still tight,and there are no assurances about what the future will bring. In addition, the profit dynamics of every industry—and, more important, for every company—are different. That last criterion is the one that truly counts for a business seller: It’s his company and his livelihood that are at issue. The job of his professional team is to keep him from falling into one of two traps: rushing headlong into selling now because the “landscape” looks good, or refusing to budge because it was better several years ago and good times may be around the corner again.
Still, owners need a touchstone for deciding whether to sell, and one metric might be if the proceeds—whether all up front or parceled out over time—are at least enough to provide for the owner’s lifetime spending needs (his so-called core-capital requirements). Ideally, he’d take home even more than that and generate “excess capital” (see “Will You Get Enough? Core Capital vs. Excess,” facing page).
Non-Sellers’ Remorse
During the boom years of the mid-2000s, many business ownerswere offered and refused term sheets, hoping to do better—only to regret that decision when the bear market ensued. Consider John and Jane Commander (Display 3, page 4), who decided in early 2007 that they were ready to give up their business, which was earning more than $7.5 million a year, and represented the vast majority of their net worth (the rest of which was invested in two IRAs totaling $1 million). They wanted to sell the business for $60 million, which worked out to 8×EBITDA, a high multiple even by 2007 standards—but were offered $48 million. They chose to pass. As we’ll see, while more money is obviously better than less, they didn’t need proceeds of $60 million to meet their financial objectives.
Indeed, three years later new offers came in, but by now, in harder times, their earnings had declined to $6 million. They’d have to sell at a lower multiple, yielding $27 million cash, leaving them with $23 million after taxes, including their IRAs. Should they sell this time?
Case Study: John and Jane Commander—Disappointment…Or Opportunity?
In 2007
- Business earning $7.5 Mil./yr.
- Appraised at 6.5× earnings=$48 Mil.
- Commanders passed on a sale
- Their Questions: Will we have enough to support our core needs?
- Will we be able to buy a $3 million second home?
- Should we hold off selling again, and hope for better?
- How should we evaluate alternative deal terms?
- Will we leave a sizable estate?
In 2010 (65 years old): Earnings down to $6 Mil.
- Appraised at 4.5× earnings=$27 Mil.
- Net proceeds after taxes: $23 Mil.**Includes $1 million in IRAs
Could they, and meet their objectives:satisfying their core-spending needs ($500,000 a year, grown with inflation), purchasing a $3 million vacation home they’d had their eye on for decades, and establishing a substantial legacy for their two children?
With so much money on the table, you wouldn’t think that core capital would even be an issue, but the Commanders live an upscale lifestyle, and there are subtractions from the top. They’dwant to set aside their capital-gains tax bill in cash, for example, and the 10% of the purchase price that would go into escrow is never entirely safe. The couple and their team justifiably wanted a specific core number from us—an estimate of how much they’d need to support themselves even in dreadful markets. To answer that question, and others related to the deal, we input the Commanders’ goals, assets, risk tolerance, time horizon, and other data specific to their situation into our proprietary Wealth Forecasting System. The couple were fortunate enough to be able to consider three different deal structures, sowe studied all three term sheets, various asset allocations for the proceeds, and several “what-ifs” for their business earnings over the next five years. After subjecting these data to 10,000 simulated future returns in markets ranging from spectacular to dismal, we generated a probability distribution of outcomes (Display 4). We projected their required core at $16.6 million, but that was a function of how they invested the deal proceeds.
Determining Allocation and Required Core Capital
Like many business owners who can no longer rely totally on earned income, the Commanders had a conservative bent when it came to investing their sale proceeds—a portfolio weighted toward bonds. We used our Wealth Forecasting System to evaluate the potential returns and volatility of a portfolio invested 20% in globally diversified stocks and 80% in bonds (Display 5).
While the model suggested that the portfolio would almost never generate a peak-to-trough loss as great as 20%, that security came at a price: Bonds have limited growth potential. We projected that the couple’s age, budget, and portfolio allocation would translate into a core-capital requirement of $18.6 million(at the 90th percentile of probability) and an expected portfolio value after 30 years of spending and taxes of $30.4 million. That doesn’t sound at all bad—but the Commanders and their team wondered if the couple could do even better.
The Commanders were aware that stocks tend to grow more quickly than bonds, so they wanted to see how much more wealth they might accumulate over 30 years if they invested at a higher risk level. If we pushed stocks to 60% of the portfolio,we projected the 30-year wealth figure at $48.8 million—$18.4 million more than a 20/80 mix. And with the extra growth of stocks, we’d expect the Commanders to need less core capital—$16.2 million. But the trade-off for stock growth is volatility. We estimated that the Commanders would face a one-in-three chance that at some point they’d lose as much as 20%. This went far beyond the limits of their risk tolerance.
The optimal solution—for this particular couple—turned out to be a bond-tilted 40/60 portfolio, which would require core capital of $16.6 million. Our analysis convinced the Commanders and their team that a 40/60 investment strategy could meet that hurdle even if markets were very poor, and with a very small risk (6%) of ever experiencing a 20% portfolio correction over the next 30 years. Our median 30-year wealth expectation was $39.4 million.
Altogether, this was an attractive picture for the couple, one they could readily embrace as the centerpiece of their financial planning. The question is, would the deal net them their core capital, and an additional $3 million to fund the vacation home—$19.6 million in all, plus enough extra to support a legacy for their kids?
Take the Money and Run…or Wait Awhile?
And so the Commanders would have to work through different term sheets with their professional team, since they were considering three different types of transactions. It turned out that all were variants of cash deals, but the cash would come to them at different times and from different sources.
One offer was straight cash up front: $27 million. After paying capital-gains taxes at 15% on the federal level and 5% to their state, and assuming a zero cost basis in the business, the Commanders would have $23 million (counting their $1 million in IRA funds). It wasn’t the $60 million they were looking for in 2007, but it was substantially more than their spending plans required. They could easily satisfy their core needs, buy the vacation home, and have $3.4 million left over for legacy purposes on Day 1—even in very poor markets and before any multigenerational planning. Why couldn’t they take the offer and walk away satisfied? The fact is, they could—if they were willing to leave behind their disappointment about not garnering $60 million. In business sales, the financial and the emotional issues are inextricably tied to oneanother. There’s another angle to consider about accepting alower offer than the peak the couple had hoped for: Lowervaluations for a business often coincide with lower valuationsin the capital markets—and hence higher return potential forthe liquid portfolios that house business-sale proceeds. For the Commanders this could even translate into more wealth in theout years than if they sold at the higher 2007 offer.
Another sale alternative was a leveraged recapitalization. What if the company took on some debt in hopes of using the extra money to improve their operations, and hence their earnings? They might find a prospective buyer interested in the growing potential of the business. In the deal the investment bankers laid out for the Commanders, a new partner would enter the business right away, with a 20% ownership interest in the Commanders’ shares. Under this structure, combining proceeds from the sale of equity and a substantial portion of the debt assumed by the business, the Commanders would come away with $13.5 million. They’d also be paid an annual salary of $400,000 for five years for continuing to participate in the company’s operations. Meanwhile, the couple would be using their company’s earnings to pay down the debt and work toward a profitable exit—in this representative case, five years after inception of the recap. True, the up-front cash would fall short of satisfying their spending needs—but the couple wouldn’t consider a leveraged recap in the first place unless they were confident about their company’s five-year earnings prospects. In a worst (and unlikely) case, if earnings plummeted enough, a deal would probably be worked out through negotiations between the would-be buyer and seller, albeit probably at a price that both sides would see as a compromise.
Finally, the Commanders received a so-called “earn-out” offer: also cash with a five-year contingency, but not as dependent as a recapitalization on an earnings upswing. In this transaction,the Commanders would give up their entire interest in the business in exchange for a share of the earnings: as much as $2.4 million annually over a five-year period. If post-sale earnings were to fall short of agreed-upon targets, the earn-out payments would be reduced proportionately. If the Commanders agreed to the terms, the couple would be offered $19 million on Day 1, plus $400,000 a year in consultingfees for five years—not quite enough to meet their coreneeds and the cost of the vacation home at the critical 90% level of confidence, though close. But unlike all-cash up front, the final value of the earn-out would be dependent on how the business performed over the near term—and like a recap, the Commanders would have to be interested in staying involved in business operations.
Working Through the Trade-Offs
Of course, there’s no “right” alternative for every business owner. Some owners feel both emotionally and financially secure staying tied to their business for a longer period. Other owners are eager to take the cash immediately, if they can get it, and go on to the next phase of their lives (which may not be retirement but another business venture). Similarly, there was no perfect alternative for the Commanders. It depended on the trade-offs they were most comfortable with—which is where we and their other professional advisors came in. We knew, though, that working together, we’d enable the Commanders to identify the strategy best tailored to meet their goals.
But why all these complications? As we said, the Commanders could take the all-cash $27 million up front and avoid the uncertainties, a strategy that many business owners embrace. Along those lines, we compare the up-front cash portion of each offer in Display 7. The all-cash-now deal was the only one that virtually ensured the couple would meet their needs in any plausible scenario; in the other two cases, a significant portion of the transaction involved contingent payouts. (With the recap, we estimated the chance of the up-front cash meeting the Commanders’ core needs at only 29%.) Deferring completion to a later date would mean exposure to a whole host of issues outside the scope of this paper, including future market conditions and buyer insolvency. Extreme cases, as we re-learned in 2008, do occur.
“The Icing on the Cake”?
But the case isn’t closed. Often, business owners regard the contingency payouts as merely icing on the cake. But with our Wealth Forecasting System, we can help sellers systematically evaluate the sensitivity of different offers to varying earnings scenarios. The more the business earns over the contingency period, the more the sellers will benefit—and the odds are generally in their favor. Display 8 adds the potential future proceeds from the final sale of the Commander business in the recap case and from continuing distributions in the earn-out scenario, as well as the salary and consulting fee, respectively. For the immediate cash alternative, of course, there are no contingencies.
Using this scenario analysis, we were able to help them stress-test different earnings outcomes versus the security of immediate cash. The leveraged recap and the earn-out both offered the opportunity for more upside—and the potential for greater downside as well. But because of its reliance on leverage, the recap was far more sensitive to earnings changes on both sides. So, for example, we estimated that just 5% earnings growth would be enough to deliver a median result of almost $100 million—and an upside above $175 million. A 10% earnings decline, on the other hand, would leave the Commanders with about $8 million of excess capital in downside markets—not a dismal outcome by any means, but the Commanders wouldn’t want to test a recap much beyond a 10% earnings falloff. As we’ve said, they wouldn’t want to take the risk of a recap unless they were quite sanguine about the future of their business.
An earn-out is also sensitive to profits, as its name implies—but less so. The earn-out considered by the Commanders would allow for an earnings decline as large as 20% and still be comparable to the all-cash offer while retaining some upsidein good markets. All the alternatives—cash, recap, and earnout—were viable options that might be appropriate depending on the Commanders’ priorities and risk tolerance. They might not have gotten what they wanted (i.e., $60 million), but they would find that they got what they needed.
Setting the Table for the Family
As we’ve said, the Commanders wished to transfer some ofthe excess capital from their proceeds to family beneficiaries. Addressed early enough, planning before the sale can be especially important. One effective means of transferring wealth is to gift shares. For gift-tax purposes, the value of the transfer will be based on a current or recent appraisal—generally lower than the value assigned at sale because pre-sale shares are illiquid and essentially unmarketable. In addition, if the gift represents a minority interest in a private company, for gift-tax purposes the value could be further discounted because the beneficiaries have no control over the illiquid shares. If the business is indeed sold for significantly more than the valuation at appraisal, the beneficiaries would end up with more than the appraised value of the gifts.
For example, if the owner uses his $1 million lifetime applicable gift-tax exclusion amount to transfer shares of his company that ultimately benefit from a 30% discount at the time of sale, he’s actually transferring $1.4 million. However, to take advantage of a discount, there needs to be a sufficient time interval between the gift and the sale agreement.
Adding the Power of GRATs
A grantor-retained annuity trust, or GRAT, can leverage gifting substantially.
Here’s how it works: The owner contributes shares of his business to the trust and receives annuity payments back that equal his gift plus an amount of interest determined by the IRS Section 7520 rate. If the assets in the GRAT appreciate at a rate faster than the 7520 hurdle, the GRAT “succeeds” and all extra appreciation passes to the beneficiaries free of transfer tax. At today’s low interest rates, the GRAT bogey is especially low. (As of June 2010, the Section 7520 rate was 3.2%.) Further, donors pay the income and capital-gains taxes from outside the GRAT, enhancing the amount transferred. Because the statute of limitations on the valuation of the shares is three years (during which time GRAT distributions can be adjusted if the IRS disputes a claimed value), professional teams often recommend a three-year GRAT when contributing assets whose value is questionable.
Contributing discounted shares of a business increases the potential benefit if the company is sold within the three-year period. The realization of the full value of the discount helps the assets in the GRAT appreciate rapidly, making it very likely to outperform the 7520 rate. In this case, we presume that a three-year $6 million GRAT invests its proceeds from the business sale in bonds for the safety of locking in returns. Once the trust expires after three years, the proceeds intended for the children are invested for the next 27 years in an 80% stock/20% bond portfolio—suitably stock-heavy if you assume that the beneficiaries have a longtime horizon. The display makes clear how the advantage of discounting builds. If the $6 million of shares in the GRAT were subject to a 30% discount, we’d expect the median value of the 80/20 portfolio to be $15.6 million after taxes and fully $7.8 million in very poor markets. Had the shares been discounted by40%, we’d project a $24.2 million median and a $12.0 million downside case. Discounting can be a powerful tool when put touse in a GRAT.
Quantifying the Advantages of Planning
Assembling a legacy plan yields notable benefits. Returning to the Commander case study, let’s assume the couple sold the business for $27 million in cash and did no planning prior to or after that point. Recall that on Day 1, they’d have $3.4 million to set aside for legacy. In the absence of any estate-planning techniques, we’d project that even in dismal markets the legacy would grow to $13.2 million—the amount left over at the 90th percentile of probability before any estate taxes (refer back to Display 8, page 7). But in the median case, we projected that—again, making use of no planning tools—they’d leave a hefty amount to their heirs at the end of 30 years: $18.8 million after estate taxes. But they’d cede even more to the government.
Suppose, though, that the couple’s legacy strategy was, pre-sale, to fund a three-year GRAT with $6 million in company shares, 30% discounted. Assume the Commanders invested the proceeds in a liquid portfolio over the 27 years following the GRAT’s term. Our models suggest that their heirs could expect the GRAT combined with the rest of the Commanders’ assets after estate taxes to produce $11 million in additional wealth.
Through the single action of funding a trust before the sale with discounted shares—and then investing the proceeds appropriately—the couple would be able to increase the legacy to their children by more than 50%—and reduce their estate-tax liability by nearly $6 million. The benefit derives from removing appreciating assets from the Commanders’ estate, decreasing their estate taxes, and setting that 80/20 risk level for the children’s portfolio rather than their own more conservative 40/60. If the couple were uneasy about leaving their children so much money, or wanted to do even more planning, pre- or post-sale, for any reason, there would be a variety of multigenerationaland philanthropic strategies at their disposal. Such strategies—using vehicles including direct gifts, private foundations, charitable remainder unitrusts (CRUTs), and charitable lead annuity trusts (CLATs)—could be used for philanthropic purposes alone or for wealth transfer to both the family and charity. Each such strategy would absorb some of the Commanders’ gifting capacity and reduce their estate-tax bill.
These techniques lie beyond the scope of this study, but the same basic principles apply—relying on professional counsel, considering various trust vehicles, and carefully timing all strategies. Evenwhen a deal is complete, it’s not too late to plan for legacy-building; it’s doing nothing with excess capital that can incur a large opportunity cost.
Conclusion
We conclude with these thoughts about the intricacies of selling a closely held business:
- Planning for personal as well as financial issues in a business sale can help the owner feel secure about completing a deal. Emotions count for a lot, whether they’re centered around the effects of the sale on family and staff, the owner’s desire (or lack of it) to close out a phase of his life, or any other issue not directly related to the proceeds.
- Rigorous scenario analysis is critical in understanding the impact that uncertain future earnings, valuations, and tax rates have on different deal structures that owners may be considering.
- Owners are well-advised to revisit their plans continuouslythroughout the sale process (before, during, and afterward).
As for the Commanders, they were strongly considering the leveraged transaction to recapture the level of upside they had in 2007. But ultimately they opted for an all-cash up-front deal and they decided to initiate a pre-transaction GRAT, a combination that provided them with peace of mind and virtual certainty of leaving a significant legacy for their children. They and their professional team knew they were trading off some good things for others they rated even better. Sir Michael would approve.
The authors would like to acknowledge Cory Dowell, a Directorof Bernstein’s Wealth Management Group, and Matthew J. Teich, an Investment Planning Analyst in the Group, for theirinvaluable insights and quantitative research.
Brian Layton, Financial Advisor at Bernstein and Exit Planning Exchange member, may be reached at Brian.Layton@bernstein.com.




Recent Comments